NFL Week 8 picks, best bets: Commanders handle disadvantaged Eagles, Jaguars rout Colts

We didn't just walk the balance beam in Week 7; we made camp on it. I was downright average over last week's slate, no matter which way you slice it. I went 8-6 straight-up and then 7-6-1 ATS. Then, in my locks of the week, I went 2-3 ATS, which brings me to 17-17-1 ATS on the year. That's the definition of middling. 

It's not bad necessarily. I could own a losing record with my locks, but let's remember what they're supposed to be -- LOCKS! We've been burned by a fair share of bad beats throughout the first half of the season and lost by the hook last week in our Vikings pick against the Colts, but there's no room for excuses. It's time to roll up our sleeves and get to work with an eye towards a more productive Week 8, which, as always, begins with my five locks of the week. 

Key Developments in NFL Week 8 picks,

Note: New Orleans, New York (Giants), San Francisco, and Houston are on the bye in Week 8.

The Colts are on the doorstep of selling off parts amid a 2-5 start to the year, which includes a three-game losing skid entering Week 8. It's hard to see a scenario where things change for the better this weekend, as they'll head to Jacksonville to face a 4-2 Jaguars team that'll be fresh off its bye week. Coming into this slate, the Colts have a claim to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Post-Match Reactions and Strategic Impact

Their 4.5 yards-per-play average is tied for the worst in the league with the Eagles, and a large part of those issues lies at quarterback. Daniel Jones has yet to rekindle the version of himself from the first half of last year and has thrown an interception in all but one game so far in 2026. Jones ranks 31st out of 33 eligible quarterbacks in passer rating this season, while his EPA per dropback ranks 30th. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this year, Jones is tied for the second-highest turnover-worth-per-throw rate. 

He now faces a Jaguars pass defense that is just outside the top-10 in the league with an 87.7 passer rating allowed. They're also tied for the third-most interceptions (7) in the league. Conversely, you have Trevor Lawrence playing like an MVP candidate and should face little resistance from a Colts defense that has just two interceptions on the year. 

Projected score: Jaguars 33, Colts 20The pick: Jaguars -7.5

The Bengals showed us their potential during their 35-point second-half outburst in the win over Baltimore. If anything close to that version of the Bengals is on the field on Sunday, Tennessee doesn't have a puncher's chance of keeping this close. Their passing offense doesn't have the ceiling to go toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow, as the club ranks 29th in passer rating and is tied for last in yards per attempt.

While Cincinnati's offense garners much of the headlines, the Bengals' defense has been an underrated unit this season and was a key reason they were able to endure an offense-free first half in Week 7. Zac Taylor's defense has the third-best red zone efficiency (35% touchdown rate) in the NFL. That matches up well against a Tennessee red zone offense that scores a touchdown on just 47.4% of trips (27th in the NFL). 

Projected score: Bengals 35, Titans 21The pick: Bengals -10.5

In theory, the Chargers would've spent the bye week figuring out what has gone wrong over their 0-6 start to the year and come out firing in Week 8, where they'll technically be the road team but will be in their home stadium as they face the Rams at SoFi Stadium. I just don't see them putting together much of a fight, however. 

Justin Herbert has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league so far this season and comes into Week 8 with a league-high 5.6% turnover-worthy throw rate. While the Rams haven't generated many turnovers, they have five interceptions on the year, showing they are more than capable of taking advantage of any opportunity Herbert gives them. The Rams are also giving up just 186.3 passing yards per game this season, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. No matter which way you slice it, it should be tough sledding for Herbert in this matchup. 

That means Matthew Stafford likely won't have to do much heavy lifting to clear this 6.5-point spread. That's especially true considering that the Chargers can be taken advantage of on the ground. They're allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game, so this could be a matchup where Kyren Williams and Blake Corum become the focal point of the attack. That backfield duo is coming off a win against the Raiders where they each went for over 90 yards rushing to go along with a touchdown. It wouldn't be shocking to see similar production on Sunday. 

Projected score: Rams 30, Chargers 17The pick: Rams -6.5

The Dolphins finally got into the win column for the first time all season with a road win against the Jets. While that's great for Jeff Hafley's club to get off the schneid, I don't see the momentum from that victory turning into a two-game winning streak. Since Mike Vrabel became the head coach, New England is 8-4-1 ATS on the road. As a road favorite in games, they are 3-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 13 points.